Counterfactuals between Probability and Semantics

Counterfactuals have been discussed extensively by logicians, philosophers of language, and metaphysicians, as well as in several fields outside philosophy. They also figure prominently in philosophical theories in other subfields; some examples include theories of explanation, theories of intentionality, and theories of knowledge. Despite the abundance of literature, they remain a central area of inquiry, and arguably some of the most interesting work on counterfactuals has been produced over the last 15-20 years. This seminar gives both an overview of classical literature and introduces some recent work.

We will start from what is generally considered the standard semantics for counterfactuals in philosophy, i.e. the closeness semantics laid out by David Lewis, Robert Stalnaker, and others. Then we will explore three other aspects of the theory of counterfactuals, each of them in a dedicated unit. The first is the nature of closeness; the second is the link between counterfactuals and rational credence; the third is the grammatical architecture of counterfactuality.

(Syllabus)

Week 1. Introduction: Goodman's problem; introduction to modal semantics (handout)

No required readings. Optional readings: Goodman, Fact, Fiction, and Forecast; Starr, "Counterfactuals"; Swanson, "Modality in Language".

Unit 1. Closeness Semantics

Week 2. Variably Strict Semantics (handout; logic challenges 1)

Required reading: Lewis, Counterfactuals, chapters 1 & 2.3.

Side reading: Kratzer, "Partition and Revision: the Semantics of Counterfactuals"; von Fintel and Heim, Notes on Intensional Semantics .

Week 3. Conditional Excluded Middle (handout)

Required reading: Stalnaker, "A Theory of Conditionals"; Lewis, Counterfactuals, section 3.4; Stalnaker, "A Defense of Conditional Excluded Middle".

Side reading: Swanson, "Conditional Excluded Middle without the Limit Assumption"; Klinedinst, "Quantified Conditionals and Conditional Excluded Middle".

Week 4. Random Selection (handout)

Required reading: Schulz, "Counterfactuals and Arbitrariness".

Side reading: Bacon, "Stalnaker's Thesis in Context" (for the brave only); Khoo, "Review of "Counterfactuals and Probability" by Moritz Schulz".

Unit 2. Closeness, Chance, and Indeterminacy

Week 5. Lewis on Closeness and the Problem of Chances

Required reading: Lewis, "Counterfactual Dependence and Time's Arrow"; Hawthorne, "Chance and Counterfactuals"; Hiddleston, "A Causal Theory of Counterfactuals".

Side reading: Hajek, "Most Counterfactuals are False".

Week 6. Typicality and Humility

Required reading: Williams, "Chances, Counterfactuals, and Similarity"; Moss, "Subjunctive Credence and Semantic Humility".

Side reading: Hajek, "Most Counterfactuals are False".

Week 7. Logic, Indeterminacy, and Possibilities

Required reading: Santorio, "Counterfactuals and Possibilities"; Humberstone, "From Worlds to Possibilities" (section 1).

Side reading: rest of Humberstone paper; Schlenker, "Conditionals as Definite Descriptions".

Unit 3. Triviality

Week 8. Chance-Credence Principles

Required reading: Meacham, "Two Mistakes about the Principal Principle"; Schulz, Counterfactuals and Probability, chapter 3; Cariani and Santorio, "Chance-Credence Principles".

Side reading: Lewis, "A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance"; Skyrms, "The Prior Propensity Account of Subjunctive Conditionals".

Week 9. Triviality, 1/2

Required reading: Khoo and Santorio, "Lecture Notes:Probability of Conditionals in Modal Semantics"", chapters 1 and 2; Williams "Counterfactual Triviality".

Side reading: TBA.

Week 10. Triviality, 2/2

Required reading: Schwarz, "Subjunctive Conditional Probability"; Santorio, "A Collapse Result for Probabilities of Counterfactuals".

Side reading: Schulz: Counterfactuals and Probability, chapter 5.

Week 11. Expressivism

Required reading: Edgington, "Counterfactuals"; Stalnaker, "Counterfactuals and Probability".

Side reading: Edgington, "Do Conditionals Have Truth Conditions?".

Unit 4 (Tentative). Tense and the Future-Counterfactuals Link

Week 12. TBA

Required reading: TBA; possibly: Iatridou, "The Grammatical Ingredients of Counterfactuality"; Condoravdi, "Modals for the Future and for the Past".

Side reading: TBA.

Week 13. TBA

Required reading: TBA; possibly: Iatridou and von Fintel, "Prolegomena to a Theory of X-Marking""